Tools for skeptical thinking
from Carl Sagan's DEMON HAUNTED WORLD 1996 Random House, p.210

1. Whenever possible, there must be independent confirmation of the "facts";

2. Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents
	of all the points of view;

3. Arguments from authority alone carry little weight -- "authorities" have been
	wrong in the past;

4. Spin more than one hypothesis (a creative, testable explanation);

5. Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours;

6. Quantify -- you'll be much better able to discriminate among competing ideas;

7. If there's a chain of argument, EVERY link in the chain must work 
	-- including the premise -- not just most of them;

8. Occam's Razor -- use the simpler argument when given a choice;

9. Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified.

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How to recognize bad reasoning:

a. ad hominem attacks that attack the arguer, not the idea;

b. argument from authority ("trust me");

c. argument from adverse consequences ("agree or suffer");

d. appeal to ignorance ("you can't prove it false, so it must be true!");

e. begging the question/assuming the answer (circular reasoning);

f. ignoring facts and evidence that don't fit the paradigm, data selection;

g. statistics of small numbers, and bad use of statistics;

h. non sequitur, meaningless questions, poor correlation, weasel words, etc.

 Interesting application (extra credit for
written analysis): Sydney [Kimmelman] Omarr, famous astrologer, stated
he was born at 10:27am Aug. 5, 1926 in Philadelphia,
“with the Sun, Mercury and Neptune in Leo, 
and Libra on the ascendant (rising).” 
	
Was he correct?  Nope.
Astronomically: 8/5/1926, 1027am Philly:
SUN & MERC IN CONSTELLATION CANCER!
NEPTUNE IN LEO -- ok
VIRGO RISING!

Problem?  He failed to account for PRECESSION, which shifts the sun signs 
by one constellation each 2,000 years.  Omarr used 2,000 year old Chinese
zodiacal placements, not the correct
ones.…

WHAT's YOUR SUNSIGN?
SUN IS IN THE FOLLOWING CONSTELLATIONS DURING THESE DATES:
3/12-4/18: PISCES
4/19-5/13: ARIES
5/14-6/21: TAURUS
6/22-7/20: GEMINI
7/21-8/10: CANCER (INCLUDES OMARR'S BIRTHDAY)
8/11-9/16: LEO
9/17-10/30: VIRGO
10/31-11/22: LIBRA
11/23-11/29: SCORPIUS
11/30-12/17: OPHIUCHUS
12/18-1/19: SAGITTARIUS
1/20-2/15: CAPRICORNUS
2/16-3/11: AQUARIUS

Ophiuchus?  Yes, Constellation boundaries give us a 13th zodiacal sign
nowadays!  This indicates how arbitrary the sun signs are, and why
appropriate caution is called for.